殲10

來源:taiwanbbs.org/cgi/index.pl?b=mil,m=1158570027

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殲10影片分析
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其影片雖短，但目的展示幾個重點

1.BVR飛彈
2.CAS任務：又是火箭，中國網友不要太傷心，俄羅斯就是這樣教的
3.攜帶火箭的是空對地迷彩：與前面空優迷彩對照，部隊可能會有空優與空對地兩種偏重。
4.空中加油
5.四顆減速炸彈...雙聯裝掛架或是內側兩個

注意最後的飛行員頭盔上有多個均勻分佈的黑點，而面罩明顯比俄製頭盔瞄準器突出，應該是顯示功能的頭盔顯示器

模型進氣口下方有兩個紅外線導航與標定莢艙，不過主翼下似乎是半主動雷達導引飛彈。中程飛彈的彈翼大，應該是半主動的PL-10？！


官方發言是四平八穩，但話中玄機也是很有趣的

1.J10相當於F-16的中期型，不如於後期型.指的應該就是Block40/50左右的水平，而不及Block50+/60的水平，所以請中國網友不要動不動拿F-22/35、EF-2000或Block 60出來比了

2.他也表示對抗美國第五代（中國的分法是第四代）戰機的確在發展中，這是值得台灣「關注」。


另外，官方否認或迴避J10設計與以色列的關係

宋文驄：
鴨式佈局是我們和國外同步開始研究地，當年搞殲-9型戰機無水準尾翼方案的時候，我們就提出了鴨式無尾佈局。60年代，美國開始研究利用脫體渦來增加飛機升力。我們在殲-9戰機上進行了試驗。為了新型戰鬥機的佈局方案，我們做了很多試驗，在確定方案前，風洞就吹了上萬次。我國新型戰機的外形設計和氣動佈局完全是我們自己搞出來的，沒有借助國外的力量，這一點我覺得很驕傲，很自豪。

不過在整個官方報導中，也強調太行引擎的成功，而刻意迴避現有飛機還是使用AL-31FN引擎的事實，所以...看看就好。


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以前在國防部網站看到的IDF﹐F-16A的飛行表演觀之後
J-10的氣動性能優於IDF ,與F-16A相當.


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這期的AFM整理了一些J-10的消息
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J-10的確是於2003/2/23才交付的，不過這裡的交付指的是交付給解放軍，而不是出廠。隨後共有10架交給Cangzhou-Cangxian的第13試飛團，並於同年12月宣布服役。2004年，更多的J10交給第3試飛團與第44師的第 131航空團，後者的成軍典禮就是之前網路上看到一排J10亮晶晶接受校閱的照片，一時找不到網路版的，各位找到可以注意一下，照片中有一排飛機，但其實只有前面八個是打開座艙罩的J10，更遠處的飛機其實迷彩不同，座艙罩也沒拉起。截至2005年為止，總共交付了32架給解放軍，而2006年則有不明數量交給第三航空師。

J-10原型機的發展可追溯到1988/10，而第一架原型機則在1996年中首飛的。1997年，第二架原型機墜毀，並於1998年的3/23由第三架原型機恢復試飛--這也是官方公布的首飛時間。雙座機則於2003/12/3首飛。發展花了八年，試飛則要七年，這把劍大概磨了15年。

不負責任推測：由此可以發現，J10的量產的確是這幾年才開始的，不過似乎也已經進入全面量產的階段，每年生產速度當在15-30架之間。


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就目前殲十的外型大小（比F-16C/D大，尺寸接近歐洲雙風，但是為單發設計）看來，個人基本上會猜測估計其噸位應當介於F-16C/D到RAFALE之間，也就是8.5噸至9.5噸間。

根據公開性能資料顯示，目前殲十發動機AL-31FN的地面靜止最大軍推為17,860磅級，地面靜止最大後推則為28,220磅級；而未來超十所預想採用的AL-31FN M1的最大後推則提升至29,800磅級。

個人估計內載燃料當在3.2至4.0噸範圍內，二中二短滿油空戰起飛重量估計當在12.4噸至14.2噸之範疇間，配合上前述AL-31FN推力數據，則殲十在此狀況下的起飛推重比當在0.90至1.04之間；若再配合上以下所述，引擎推力因為戰機衝刺時的速度增加而提高，以及內載燃料於起飛過程中消耗的兩項因素，則上述構形殲十在標準地表氣候環境下的起飛瞬間推重比或可略加提高至0.94至1.10的範圍間。

戰機空重：
J-10：8,500 ~ 9,500 kg
Rafale：9,500 ~ 9,850 kg
EF-2K：10,995 ~ 11,150 kg


空戰攔截構型起飛重量（二中二短 + 滿油 + 飛行員／機炮彈藥）：
J-10：12,400 ~ 14,200 kg
Rafale：14,850 ~ 15,200 kg
EF-2K：16,300 ~ 16,850 kg


上述構型起飛推重比（最大後燃／最大軍推）：

殲十：0.90 ~ 1.03／0.57 ~ 0.65（AL-31FN：28,220磅／17,860磅）
超十：0.95 ~ 1.09／???????????（AL-31FN M1：29,800磅／?????）
超十：0.99 ~ 1.14／???????????（AL-31FN M2：31,300磅／?????）
超十：1.04 ~ 1.19／???????????（AL-31FN M3：32,630磅／?????）

Rafale C：1.00 ~ 1.04／0.66 ~ 0.69（M88-2）
Rafale C：1.16 ~ 1.23／0.77 ~ 0.82（M88-3）
Rafale C：1.35 ~ 1.42／0.90 ~ 0.95（M88-4）

EF-2000：1.09 ~ 1.13／0.72 ~ 0.75（EJ-200，平時）
EF-2000：1.15 ~ 1.19／0.83 ~ 0.86（EJ-200，戰時）
EF-2000：1.20 ~ 1.24／0.83 ~ 0.86（EJ-200，小改）
EF-2000：1.23 ~ 1.29／0.85 ~ 0.90（EJ-230）
EF-2000：1.40 ~ 1.52／0.91 ~ 0.99（EJ-270）

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PS:
前文所用的推力數字都是各家引擎在地面靜止狀態下的推力數據，不過實際在戰機起飛時，引擎的最大推力輸出會受到氣溫影響，且會因為戰機在跑道上的衝刺而有所提高；而內載燃料在從戰機引擎啟動至衝刺起飛的過程中也會有所消耗（例如EJ-200在後推下的的SFC為47 ~ 49 g/kN.s，假設在起飛前開了約10秒的後燃，則颱風戰機自開後燃衝刺至起飛間便業已耗去差不多一個飛行員體重的內載燃料.......），不會在起飛時仍維持100%內載燃油的狀況，因此上述各戰機在起飛時瞬間的實際推重比，當都會比在下於上所列的數據大些（個人估計當可高個4至6%左右）。


以F100發動機為例：

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/ngnsim.html

標準大氣下，地面靜止狀態下最大後推 （攝氏0度）：30,210磅（Score：104.2）

標準大氣下，地面靜止狀態下最大後推 （攝氏15度）：28,974磅（Score：100.0）

標準大氣下，地面靜止狀態下最大後推 （攝氏30度）：27,789磅（Score：95.9）

標準大氣下，地面150節起飛時速下最大後推 （攝氏0度）：31,360磅（Score：108.2）

標準大氣下，地面150節起飛時速下最大後推 （攝氏15度）：30,020磅（Score：103.6）

標準大氣下，地面150節起飛時速下最大後推 （攝氏30度）：28,744磅（Score：99.2）





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美方分析殲十之能力
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美國專門研究解放軍的有名學者之一

沒全翻，詳見原文。
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.140/pub_detail.asp
China’s J-10 Jet Fighter: How Much Do We Know?
中國的殲十戰機﹕我們知道多少﹖
by Richard Fisher, Jr.
Published on January 16th, 2007
ARTICLES

Since late December 2006 China has been rolling out its Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (CAC) Jian-10 (Fighter-10, or J-10) multi-role fighter, with some publicity. We have seen unprecedented video[1] and print press coverage[2] of the fighter and interviews with prominent members of the CAC design team.[3] The purposes seem to be, first, to demonstrate to Chinese and foreigners alike that China can build her own "indigenous" aircraft itself, without relying on foreign help, and second, that as a responsible "rising power," China has nothing to hide from the world (the theme of the National Defense White Paper of December 29, 2006).

But the whole exercise has also been conspicuous for what it lacks. First, no official data have been provided regarding the actual capabilities and performance of the J-10. And second, we have heard little or nothing from the many Israeli and Russian engineers who helped make this aircraft possible.

From the early 1990s to the present period the J-10 has been viewed by government and non-government analysts as a key indicator of Chinese military potential, and as such, has been an object of intense scrutiny and speculation. In 1997 the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence produced speculative artist imagery of the J-10 (an honor previously reserved for mysterious new Soviet combat aircraft) estimating that an eventual twin-engine version would fly off a future Chinese aircraft carrier. But at about the same time, many U.S. government and non-government analysts regarded the J-10 (and the idea of Chinese aircraft carriers) as far-fetched.

The J-10 program started in the 1960s with the J-9, a canard (horizontal stabilizer in front of the wing) fighter (like the J-10) which resembled the Swedish JA-37 Viggen. The J-9 was conceived of then, in the years of the Sino-Soviet confrontation, as short take-off and fast climbing interceptor to ward of invading Soviet aircraft. Work started at the Shenyang Aircraft Company, but was switched to CAC. As time passed, however, with no plane, the concept of the J-10 evolved into that of a full multi-role fighter. The Chinese would like the world to believe that the J-10 is "designed and made entirely in China."[4] However, over the course of its development the J-10 required substantial technical and consulting inputs from Israel and then Russia. The J-10’s basic configuration has clear influences from the Israeli Aircraft Industries Lavi,-- an aircraft program, never completed, that was largely paid for by the United States.[5] These include its underslug air intake and slightly anhedral delta wings. What appears to be a likely early concept for the J-10 even copies the Lavi’s vertical stabilizer.

The J-10 is furthermore completely "fly by wire," or computer driven, an achievement probably to be credited to Israeli consultants, who in turn may in turn have relied on their exposure to U.S. technology associated with the pioneering fly-by-wire Lockheed-Martin F-16. Chengdu did develop its own system, however, which it tested on a modified JJ-6 training aircraft.

Finally, the J-10 was developed in considerable secrecy. Planned debuts in previous years were evidently canceled. The aircraft has been unveiled just now not as a prototype but as an aircraft already in production and serving with the PLA air force. What do we know about it?

We Know #1: The CAC J-10 is now in production and is serving in PLA Air Force units.

Internet source imagery confirms that the J-10 is flying in at least two active PLAAF regiments, the first becoming operational in 2005, plus a testing regiment. Other reporting indicates that another two more regiments may be transitioning to the J-10. At least one regiment contains two-seat J-10S versions, which reportedly first flew in December 2003. The J-10S is designed for training, but could in the future be upgraded to dedicated attack variant. It should be expected that the PLA Navy will purchase some to replace obsolete J-7 fighters. And furthermore, Pakistan may be first in line to purchase the J-10, perhaps toward the end of this decade, or soon into the next.

我們知道第一﹕殲十目前已在量產並在解放軍空軍服役
網上影像證實殲十至少已裝備兩個 PLAAF 團，第一個於二零零五服役，外加一個測試團。其他報告顯示另外兩個團可能正在換裝殲十。至少一個團有二零零三年十二月首飛的雙座型 J-10S 。…

We Know #2: China now has a 4th generation multi-role fighter having performance that will soon approach that of the Lockheed-Martin F-16 Block 40.

The J-10 exhibits the major characteristics of 4th generation fighters such as the F-16 and F/A-18, such as computer driven or "fly-by-wire" control systems that ensure far greater flying precision; use of high-thrust turbofan engines to ensure a near 1 to 1 thrust-to-weight ratio for high performance 8-9G combat maneuvering; and the ability to employ advanced radar and weapons.

With its canard configuration and slightly larger wing, the J-10 can probably be credited with slightly better maneuverability than the F-16.

The fighter employs a Chinese developed radar, which, although it may rely on technology obtained from Russian or other sources, is nevertheless a Chinese product it can now sell. This radar, the maker, name or performance of which has not been officially disclosed, is usually assumed to employ a mechanically slewed planar array comparable to early 1990s era Western fighter radar, but with the performance enhancements gained from integrating more modern computer components.

Multiple images also confirm the J-10 uses modern Chinese-made cockpit systems to include hands-on-throttle-and-stick (HOTAS) controls that enable use of the range of combat systems while hands remain on these critical aircraft controls, and glass multi-function displays which allow a pilot to view flight system data or target imagery by pressing a button.

我們知道第二﹕中國現在有個第四代多用途戰機將可與 LM F-16 Block 40 性能相近。

殲十具備 F-16 F/A-18 之類第四代戰機所有重大指標﹕FBW、高推渦扇引擎近一比一的推重比以供 8-9G 高性能空戰機動、裝備先進雷達及武器的能力。
以其前翼佈局和較大機翼，殲十大概比 F-16 機動性還好。…
殲十的雷達製造者、名稱、或性能都沒正式宣佈，但通常被認為是個機械相位陣列雷達，可與一九九零年代西方雷達比擬，但因較現代的電腦配件而有所提昇。許多影像也證實殲十具有先進的中國製座艙系統，包括 HOTAS、MFD…

We Know #3: The J-10 is armed with modern weapons systems and can be refueled in flight.

The J-10 employs now (or will soon be able to employ) modern anti-air and ground attack weapons. In early 2005 Chinese sources disclosed to the author that CAC had completed integration of the PL-12/SD-10 self-guiding medium range air-to-air missile,[6] two to four of which can be carried by the J-10. While the PL-12 relies on a Russian/Ukrainian developed missile radar, its Chinese designed missile engine is credited with giving it a slightly greater range than the comparable Russian Vympel R-77, which makes it very competitive with relatively recent versions of the U.S. Raytheon AIM-120 AMRAAM.

As for ground attack, an early January AVIC-1 press conference displayed a J-10 model equipped with two low-light/laser targeting pods attached to the engine intake. While this modification has yet to be seen on J-10s "in the field," this modification is how the F-16 employs the twin-pod LANTRIN targeting and low-light navigation system, or the new singke-pod systems. The F-16 did not integrate LANTRIN until its Block 40 version, which began delivery in 1989, a decade after the initial F-16As entered service. This Chinese targeting pod was developed, according to Russian sources, with the help of the Russian UOMZ optical targeting system company, but again, it will be marketed as a Chinese system. Imaging made available over the last 18 months and more recent videos show the J-10 can carry bombs on wing and fuselage, for a total of 11 weapon attachments. The use of targeting pods indicates the J-10’s potential to employ the laser and navigation satellite guided bombs revealed by the Louyang Company and CASIC consortium during the 2006 Zhuhai show.

A video released late December also included the first ever images of a J-10 equipped with a fixed probe for aerial refueling, taking fuel from a Chinese-built Xian H-6U tanking aircraft. Images of initial J-10 units do not indicate this is a current standard feature for the J-10, but it could for future versions. Such tanking ability would significantly increase the J-10’s operational flexibility to sustain longer combat air patrols or to undertake longer range attack missions.

我們知道第三﹕殲十配有先進武器系統並可空中加油

二零零五年時中國消息來源向作者透露成飛已經完成了 PL-12/SD-10 中距彈的整合，殲十可掛載兩到四枚。霹靂十二雖然依靠俄國及烏克蘭研發的飛彈雷達，但其中國製飛彈引擎提供比俄國 R-77 還遠的射程，因而可與美國 AIM-120 競爭。

至於對地攻擊， AVIC-1 記者會展出殲十模型配備兩個雷射目標莢艙。雖然這還沒出現在服役中的殲十之上，這跟 F-16 的 LANTRIN 配備模式一樣。根據俄方說法，此中國莢艙是由俄國 UOMZ 公司所協助完成的。但它仍會被當作中國系統買賣。

影像也顯示出殲十在翼下及機身有十一個掛點。目標莢艙代表殲十配備珠海秀展出之LGB 及衛星導航炸彈的能力。

一個十二月的錄影業顯示出殲十配備固定加油管、由 H-6U 加油機加油。影像顯出這目前仍不是標準配備，但可能是未來型號的標準。這種能力將大幅度提昇殲十的CAP 或長程攻擊的作戰彈性。

We Know #4: The Chinese are about to master complex propulsion technology, and with the imminent production of the Shenyang WS-10A "Taihang" turbofan engine, the J-10 can soon be marketed as a fully indigenous Chinese 4th generation fighter.

Turbofan and jet engine technology has been one area in which the Chinese have encountered great difficulty in developing indigenous systems. The metallurgy of long-lasting fan blades is extremely complicated, as is the engineering, which is often viewed as much art as science.

Today the J-10 is powered by a Russian AL-31FN engine. China has purchased 150 AL-31FNs and in the recent past Russian sources have spoken of their expectation that China would purchase another 200 or so. The final number purchased will depend on how quickly China’s WS-10A Taihang turbofan engine can complete final testing and reach sufficient production to contribute to the J-10 program.

China’s quest for a modern high performance turbofan combat aircraft engine has lasted as long as the J-10’s story. While WS-10A is given a lower profile in reporting about the PLA, is perhaps a more important accomplishment than the J-10, inasmuch as this new engine enables multiple combat aircraft, enables the development of modern turbofans for airliner and cargo transports and its establishes a critical knowledge base for developing 5th generation fighters engines.

Official performance statistics for the Taihang have yet to be revealed. Numerous Chinese sources credit this engine with a 13,200kg maximum thrust, which could compare very favorably to the 12,500kg rating for the AL-31FN now used by the J-10.

China is also developing thrust vectoring for this engine, which serves to greatly enhance maneuverability and is also useful under certain conditions, for lowering landing speeds.

However, it appears that Shenyang and its J-11B, a greatly indigenized version of the Sukhoi Su-27 being co-produced by Shenyang, will have first claim on Taihang engine production. This J-11 may prove to be a more important combat aircraft than the J-10 in terms of performance. But perhaps because it is largely based on a foreign Russian design, it will not be given the same "debut" party as the J-10.

The J-10’s future, especially its export prospects, are tied to the Taihang engine. For example, Chengdu’s smaller FC-1 Fierce Dragon fighter, which is part of a major co-development and co-production agreement with Pakistan, has been bedeviled by Indian pressure on Russia not to sell its rival the Russian-made Klimov RD-93 engines which now power the FC-1. Pakistan is also planning to purchase an initial batch of 36 J-10s, and the Taihang would allow CAC to avoid foreign engine entanglements.

我們知道第四﹕
中國人將掌握先進引擎科技，裝備即將量產的WS-10A後,殲十便是完全自製的中國第四代戰機。

渦扇及噴射機引擎一向是中國遇到困難的自製科技領域之一。… 目前殲十配備俄製AL-31FN 。中國已買了150 個AL-31FN，俄方消息顯示出他們預計中國還會再訂兩百多個。最終購買數量將取決於WS-10A 的進度… 雖然WS-10A 比較低調，但其實可能是比殲十還重要的成就…太行引擎還沒有官方數據。許多中國消息指出該引擎推力為 13,200kg，比 AL-31FN的 12,500kg 還好。

中國也在發展向量推力引擎…不過 J-11B可能會先裝太行。就性能而言 J-11 或許比 J-10重要，但由於它是俄國設計所以不會跟殲十公開那麼大張旗鼓。

殲十未來尤其是外銷跟太行引擎習習相關…

We Don’t Know:

Even by her own standards, China has been rather secretive with respect to the development of the J-10. Evidently the desire was to garner the full publicity value of the unexpected revelation of existing production and in place operational capabilities about which foreigners had hitherto only speculated. Some attempt was probably made as well to divert foreign attention away to major technology indigenization. Now after the debut, there is still much we do not know.

The Chengdu Aircraft Corporation has yet to release its own dimension, weight and performance statistics for the J-10 and twin-seat J-10S. Barring such a release it is not possible to know from open sources or from what may appear to be reasonably sound estimates, what is the real performance of the J-10. Such information remains a state secret.

We do not know how many J-10s the PLA Air Force will purchase. Some analysts estimate the PLAAF may only purchase 300 to 400 J-10s. At the 2003 Moscow Airshow a Russian source gave the author his estimate that total lifetime production for the J-10 could reach 1,200. This number has since been reported in the Department of Defense annual reports to the U.S. Congress on Chinese military modernization.

Nor do we know how quickly will modified versions emerge, or will the J-10 soon be eclipsed by a new 5th generation fighter.

In early 2005 Chinese sources told the author that "advanced" versions of the J-10 were in development, but would not elaborate.[7] In late 2005 and early 2006 reporting emerged that China was potentially basing new versions of the J-10 on a combination of up-rated and possibly thrust-vectored AL-31FN engines and new active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.[7] Such an upgrade path is quite plausible and follows the example set by other 4th generation fighters now in production. Nevertheless there is no definitive information from CAC on new versions of the J-10.

At the 2005 Moscow Airshow one Russian source believed that China’s interest in a thrust-vectored version of the AL-31FN engine was driven primarily by its intention to develop a carrier-capable version of the single-engine J-10. The combination of canard configuration, precise computer controls, and thrust vectoring might indeed allow the J-10 to achieve rather slow landing speeds, a critical factor in carrier operations safety. However, a carrier capable J-10 would require extensive airframe and undercarriage strengthening and modification. In addition this fighter would have to prove significant cost and safety advantages over the carrier-proven twin-engine Russian Sukhoi Su-33, which so far appears to be favored by the PLA for the first Chinese aircraft carrier.

There is also the possibility that in the next decade that the J-10 may become eclipsed by a new 5th generation (4th generation in China) combat aircraft. J-10 program director Liu Gaozhou recently stated that, "…we are researching and developing a fourth generation to meet the requirements of defending the motherland."[8]

A Chinese source disclosed in early 2005 that CAC was considering a program to build a "F-35" class fighter. This would likely mean that CAC is considering stealthy, AESA-radar equipped, internal weapon carrying high performance combat aircraft. It is logical that CAC would consider such a "lightweight" fighter project, inasmuch as Shenyang seems to be building "heavy" fighters. Nevertheless, brochures from the 601 Design Institute, usually associated with CAC, appear to indicate they are considering a "heavy" twin-engine 5th generation design that may be in competition with Shenyang’s longstanding 5th generation fighter program. However, Shenyang’s revelation of an advanced forward-swept wing but single-engine 5th generation fighter concept at the recent 2006 Zhuhai Airshow, may mean it also is aiming for an “affordable” next-generation design.

我們不知道﹕
就算用中國標準來看，殲十的發展歷程也算很秘密。顯然中國希望能利用意外宣佈來宣傳…並移轉外界對中國大項科技自製化的關注。…

成飛仍沒有公佈殲十的大小、重量及性能。沒有這些數據就不能從公開資料中得知殲十的真正性能。… 我們不知道解放軍將採購多少殲十… 也不知衍生型會多快出現或馬上被第五代戰機取代。… 有報告說新型殲十可能採用向量推力且推力提昇的引擎與 AESA 雷達。這種模式有可能發生，跟其他第四代戰機的例子相同。但成飛從來沒確認過此消息。

2005 莫斯科航空展時一個俄方消息認為中國對向量推力 AL-31FN 引擎感興趣是因為中國準備發展航艦用殲十。前翼、準確電腦控制、與向量推力的組合卻是可能讓殲十有較慢的降落速度，一個航艦運作安全十分重要的因素。不過航艦用的殲十需要機體及降落架的大改，也必須比目前似乎在解放軍當紅的 Su-33 還更好。

殲十也可能被新代戰機取代… 一個中國消息披露成飛考慮建立一個 F-35 級的戰機，也就是說會包含匿蹤、AESA 雷達、內載武器的高性能戰機。…不過 跟成飛相關的 601 所的小冊子顯示出他們也考慮重型雙引擎的戰機與瀋飛競爭。瀋飛在珠海展出的單引擎前掠翼戰機構想也可能代表他們會考慮低價新代戰機。

Conclusion

All indications are that China has successfully completed the development and commenced deployment of a competitive 4th generation combat aircraft, that when modified with better engines and AESA radar, perhaps in the near-term, will provide the PLAAF and its clients with a multi-role combat aircraft competitive with advanced versions of the F-16C/D Block 50+ and the Boeing F/A-18E/F. Even with advanced features, the J-10 will be sure to beat the U.S. fighters in terms of price, which offers the chance of real success in the market. There are indications it could sell for between $25 and $40 million, much better than the $60 million Chile recently paid for F-16s.

Furthermore, as Liu Gaozhou and other Chinese press reports have elaborated, the J-10 and J-11 “indigenization” programs have allowed China to give a relatively young cadre of aircraft, engine, component and weapons engineers their first taste of success. Having mastered the initial version of the J-10 and its many subsystems, it should not take long for upgraded models to follow, and this broad experience can be expected to accelerate progress on 5th generation combat aircraft programs.

This is not good news for any of China’s neighbors: not for Japan, or Korea, or for Taiwan, which was just had its request for a small number of new F-16 Block 50s rebuffed by Washington. Nor is it good news for India, once the J-10 lands in Pakistan. Middle Eastern and Latin American countries may prove interested as well. This news will disappoint Russians who had looked to a steady stream of Chinese purchases to fund their own advanced aircraft development. Finally, this not good news for the United States, which will now require far more than the U.S. Air Force’s currently planned 182 Lockheed-Martin F-22, the only 5th generation fighter available to the U.S. which offers decisive superiority over the J-10 and J-11. Nor can the U.S. cannot rest on its laurels. China should not be expected to take another 20 years to unveil its 5th generation fighter designs.

結論

…殲十比美國戰機便宜… 殲十成果及培養出的人材有助於下代戰機發展…這對中國鄰居來說都不是好消息…也讓想繼續賺錢的俄國人失望…這對美國也不好，因為能輕鬆幹掉 J-10/J-11 的 F-22 數量太少…美國也不能掉以輕心，中國不會花另外二十年做第五代戰機。

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[1] A Chinese television story based on AVIC-1 video footage has been recorded on Google Video: http://video.google.nl/videoplay?docid=7674592930707673426&q=j-10

[2] The J-10 is the cover story for at least four Chinese popular military issue magazines for this month; also see "Chinese Fighter Makes Debut," Xinhua, January 5, 2007.

[3] For Chinese language coverage of the J-10 to include interviews with members of the design team, see the special J-10 web page at Sina.com http://jczs.news.sina.com.cn/nz/j10/index.shtml; also see, Wang Jianjun, "F-10 Displays Its Military Might," Liaowang, January 8, 2007, p. 12-13.

[4] Video coverage from CCTV.com in English: http://www.cctv.com/video/NewsHour/2007/01/NewsHour_128_20070106_2.shtml; also see, "China Indigensous 3rd Generation Jian-10 (J-10) Makes Debut," CCTV.com, http://www.cctv.com/english/20070106/100536.shtml

[5] The best examination of the Lavi as a crisis in Israeli-U.S. relations remains, Dov S. Zakheim, Flight of the Lavi, Washington: Brassey’s, 1996.

[6] Interview, London, May 2005; also reported by author in “Chengdu News,” Air Forces Monthly, October 2005, p. 22..

[7] Ibid.

[8] Henry Ivanov, "China working on ‘Super-10’ advanced fighter," Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 11, 2006.

[9] Wang, op-cit.